Football power index nfl

The NFC East will feature a double-digit winner that must go on the road for the postseason.

Football season never truly ends. It's a little early to have any fully formed takes. The league year opens in mid-March, and we'll have plenty of free-agency and trade activity to account for. The NFL Draft will also have a huge hand in changing the picture. All of that will come in due time. None of that is a good enough excuse to stop me from taking an early guess. As we begin the long journey back to the Super Bowl, here is a very premature look at the league's hierarchy.

Football power index nfl

The 49ers looked like their old selves. The Ravens must not like it when we heap praise on them, because they blew a point, fourth-quarter lead to Cleveland. What this season has not been is predictable. The Eagles might be the alpha dogs for now, but they're not invulnerable. Is another member of the pack ready to knock them off their perch? Not quite yet. Jalen Hurts admitted that the Week 10 bye came at the right time , and you hope he and his left knee got some proper rest. The Eagles' next five games could be as tough a stretch as any that a contender will face this season. They're at Kansas City in Week 11 , followed by two challenging contests at home vs. Buffalo and San Francisco , and then road games at Dallas and Seattle. Philadelphia is , but it will be surprising if the team doesn't drop at least one game in that gauntlet.

The run game was pretty productive rush yardsbut Young had maybe his worst start to a game this season, unable to get anything going beyond the short, quick stuff.

Skip to main content Skip to navigation. FPI Projections Efficiencies. Team San Francisco 49ers. Baltimore Ravens. Buffalo Bills.

In the NFL -- unlike college football or college basketball -- there are no committees, no "style points" and no subjectivity. If a team wins enough games to earn a divisional title or a wild-card spot, it will make the playoffs and possibly have a chance to compete for the Super Bowl. For this reason, the ultimate goal when rating teams in the NFL is to measure team strength and project performance going forward. Each team's FPI rating is composed of a predicted offensive, defensive and special teams efficiency, as measured by expected points added per play, and that rating is the basis for FPI's game-level and season-level projections. In the preseason, FPI uses a number of predictive factors to project future team strength. The main component of preseason FPI is Vegas expectations; the expected win totals and money lines for each team are an accurate representation of predicted team strength and provide a strong baseline for teams entering the season. But relying solely on Vegas has its flaws, and more information is needed to determine what percentage of a team's projected win total can be attributed to its offense, defense and special teams units -- the components that make up FPI. To gather more information on each unit, ESPN polled a panel of NFL experts regarding the expected offensive, defensive and overall performances of teams for the upcoming season.

Football power index nfl

FPI, which launched Monday, is a forward-looking projection model that includes ratings and projections for every team, from projected win-loss records to percentages to win each division. A full explanation for how FPI works can be found here , but here's the abridged version: The model determines forward-looking strength ratings for every team based on a variety of factors, including team win total, projected starting quarterback, returning starters and past performance on offense, defense and special teams. FPI then uses those ratings to simulate the season 20, times to create projections. For the version of FPI, we made some under-the-hood improvements, including an updated expected points added model and a better predictive quarterback rating system. But the outputs are all the same: We're still talking football -- and about the chances of each team's success -- which now includes 17 regular-season games and an expanded playoff field. Let's dive into the FPI projections with the 10 biggest takeaways. And we'll start with the Chiefs:. Yes, the Chiefs -- not the Super Bowl-champion Buccaneers -- are projected to be the best team and also have the best chances to hoist the Lombardi trophy next February.

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With just three weeks left in the regular season, Eric Edholm updates his Power Rankings. Four turnovers, or five if you count the third-quarter turnover on downs. No one reasonably could have expected defensive improvement following the trades of pass rushers Chase Young and Montez Sweat , but the unit underachieved prior to that, too, leading to the dismissal of defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio and secondary coach Brent Vieselmeyer after the blowout loss to the Cowboys on Thanksgiving. But boy, since the first Kansas City game , the effort's been pretty terrific, even with the late TD drive allowed Monday. Baltimore Ravens. Last Thursday against the Bears was technically the low point for Bryce Young and the Panthers offensively -- at least in terms of yards and first downs -- which is a bit surprising because it felt so similar to previous Carolina games, save for the one Andy Dalton started. What's next for the upstart Texans? Shannon Spake. New Orleans Saints. This was the worst Houston looked offensively all season -- or, at the very least, since Week 1.

But what is our Football Power Index?

Eric D. The Bears are in a pretty good spot, regardless. They've only outscored opponents in one quarter this season, but it's the key one: the fourth. Outside of the strip sack , Jacksonville's pass rush was disappointing on Sunday, pressuring Flacco 12 times and hitting him thrice on 45 dropbacks. Don't forget that the AFC South suddenly looks like a loaded division. Right now, he and some of the skill-position players are the best thing Washington has going for itself. It is a pivotal offseason for the Commanders. As it stands, though, they are currently in quarterback hell without the draft capital to make a run at one of the top rookies. Read Edit View history. Chad Johnson. Big South. Antonio Pierce did a great job as the interim head coach, and I'm so happy he got this shot at the full-time job.