Fivethirtyeigh

Read more about the methodology.

The team covers the latest in politics, tracking the issues and "game-changers" every week. The Michigan primary resulted in easy victories for both former president Donald Trump and President Joe Biden, but it also laid bare some discontent in both parties. Elliott Morris about Trump's and Biden's vulnerabilities within their own parties. Later in the show the crew turns its focus to Washington to discuss the looming partial government shutdown and how immigration is continuing to grow as a key issue for voters. They also question whether a recent poll using pictures of Robert F.

Fivethirtyeigh

Bull Moose Project is a partisan sponsor for the Republican Party. Bernie Moreno is a Republican Party candidate for office. League of American Workers is a partisan sponsor for the Republican Party. The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC , c 4 , c 5 or c 6 organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political party. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national Republican primary averages is available for download here. Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email. Polling averages by G. Elliott Morris. How Popular Is Joe Biden? Filter by poll type or state. District All.

Rolling Stone. For example, Rasmussen Reports fivethirtyeigh on six of its nine swing-state polls".

On September 18, , the original website domain at fivethirtyeight. The website, which takes its name from the number of electors in the United States electoral college , [ 1] was founded on March 7, , as a polling aggregation website with a blog created by analyst Nate Silver. During the presidential primaries and general election of the site compiled polling data through a unique methodology derived from Silver's experience in sabermetrics to "balance out the polls with comparative demographic data". Since the election, the site has published articles—typically creating or analyzing statistical information—on a wide variety of topics in current politics and political news. These included a monthly update on the prospects for turnover in the Senate ; federal economic policies; Congressional support for legislation; public support for health care reform , global warming legislation and LGBT rights ; elections around the world; marijuana legalization ; and numerous other topics. The site and its founder are best known for election forecasts, including the presidential election in which FiveThirtyEight correctly predicted the vote winner of all 50 states and the District of Columbia.

Read more about the methodology. The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC , c 4 , c 5 or c 6 organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political party. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national Republican primary averages is available for download here. Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email. Polling averages by G.

Fivethirtyeigh

Read more about the methodology. Daily Kos is a partisan sponsor for the Democratic Party. The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC , c 4 , c 5 or c 6 organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political party.

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Instead, they were what we [call] 'subjective odds' — which is to say, educated guesses. Archived from the original on March 17, President: general election, Arizona, Feb. President: general election, California, Feb. FiveThirtyEight published a graph showing different growth curves of the news stories covering Tea Party and Occupy Wall Street protests. Archived from the original on October 9, Archived from the original on November 7, Archived from the original on July 8, Archived from the original on October 21, During the post election period Silver devoted attention to developing some tools for the analysis of forthcoming Congressional elections , [ 15] [ 16] as well as discussing policy issues and the policy agenda for the Obama administration, especially economic policies. The blog would be listed under the "Politics" tab of the News section of the Times. Retrieved June 13, Swing state Republican parties are in chaos. Harris November 3, Archived from the original on April 5,

In November , we made changes to the way we calculate our polling averages. Read the full methodology here.

The Fivey Fox mascot pops up next to most charts with call-outs to more further information. July 22, FiveThirtyEight sought to apply its mathematical models to the Oscars, and produced internal predictions regarding the subject, predicting four out of six categories correctly. Thus, his projections were not simply based on the polling trends in a given state. Archived from the original on November 10, The Huffington Post. COVID isolation period. In a long retrospective, "How I Acted Like a Pundit and Screwed up on Donald Trump", published in May after Trump had become the likely nominee, Silver reviewed how he had erred in evaluating Trump's chances early in the primary campaign. Archived from the original on October 11, When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. The Daily. According to Silver's analysis, Strategic Vision's data displayed statistical anomalies that were inconsistent with random polling. What risks his other cases pose. For his general election projections for each state, in addition to relying on the available polls in a given state and "similar states", Silver estimated a " regression " using historical voting information along with demographic characteristics of the states to create an estimate that he treated as a separate poll equivalent to the actually available polls from that state.