Electoral calculus

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Electoral calculus

Electoral Calculus is a political forecasting web site that attempts to predict future United Kingdom general election results. It considers national factors and local demographics. The site was developed by Martin Baxter, [1] who was a financial analyst specialising in mathematical modelling. The site includes maps, predictions and analysis articles. It has separate sections for elections in Scotland and Northern Ireland. Change UK was later removed from the headline prediction ahead of the general election as their poll scores were not statistically significant. The site is based around the employment of scientific techniques on data about the United Kingdom's electoral geography, [1] which can be used to calculate the uniform national swing. The calculations were initially based on what is termed the Transition Model , which is derived from the additive uniform national swing model. This uses national swings in a proportional manner to predict local effects. Across the eight general elections from to [8]. It was listed by The Guardian in as one of the " most useful websites", being "the best" for predictions. John Rentoul in The Independent referred to the site after the election.

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Poll History. Current state of party support in Scotland, along with a record of Scottish opinion polls since Dec Current state of party support in Northern Ireland, along with a record of NI opinion polls since Dec Introductory article to the science of opinion polls, describing the importance of sample size and quotas. Historical record of polls published in the run-up to recent general elections. Pick a year from:. Poll History All national polls since Complete record of national opinion polls since the last general election in Dec

Electoral calculus

Get the data on GitHub. The U. In the last year, state legislatures have passed numerous new election laws , abortion restrictions , anti-transgender laws and more. But according to our analysis of state-legislative redistricting using the same tools we use to analyze congressional redistricting on our redistricting tracker , as well as conversations with experts in state-legislative elections, the legislatures in even many battleground states have been drawn to give one party a clear advantage. That is not a new development, but we also found that redistricting changed the electoral calculus in several battleground states: Some legislative chambers got more competitive, while other previously contested chambers got sewn up for one party. So join us for an all-expenses-paid tour through all the state capitols you might rightly or wrongly expect to be up for grabs this decade. First up: a trio of swing states whose legislatures have nonetheless been safely Republican for years — and figure to remain so for the foreseeable future. Georgia is perhaps the most egregious example. The median seat in the state Senate is 16 percentage points redder than the state as a whole, and the median seat in the state House is 10 points redder, meaning Democrats would have to win the statewide popular vote by double digits in order to be favored to flip either chamber.

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He attempts to apply scientific techniques to the electoral geography of Britain to predict the future general election results. Download as PDF Printable version. It was listed by The Guardian in as one of the " most useful websites", being "the best" for predictions. Read Edit View history. Accept analytics cookies Reject analytics cookies View cookies. British political forecasting web site. Cookies on Companies House services We use cookies to make our services work and collect analytics information. Accounts Next accounts made up to 31 May due by 28 February Last accounts made up to 31 May We use cookies to make our services work and collect analytics information. Contents move to sidebar hide. Cookies on Companies House services We use some essential cookies to make our services work.

Read the headline prediction, and also see the full details about which seats would be won and lost if there were a general election tomorrow. Our current headline prediction for what would happen if there were a UK General Election tomorrow. Make your own predictions both for the entire country and for any particular Westminster constituency in England, Scotland and Wales.

Cookies on Companies House services We use some essential cookies to make our services work. It was listed by The Guardian in as one of the " most useful websites", being "the best" for predictions. Companies House does not verify the accuracy of the information filed link opens a new window. Read Edit View history. Accept analytics cookies Reject analytics cookies View cookies. Cookies on Companies House services We use cookies to make our services work and collect analytics information. Archived from the original on 5 May Follow this company File for this company. Tell us what you think of this service link opens a new window Is there anything wrong with this page? An independent UK election prediction site maintained by Martin Baxter. It has separate sections for elections in Scotland and Northern Ireland. Skip to main content. We use cookies to make our services work and collect analytics information. Companies House does not verify the accuracy of the information filed link opens a new window.